America's monthly GDP "rose by a modest rate of 1.3 percent in July”, said UNH Professor (in exile) Simos, and Editor-in-Chief of the Monthly GDP Warp Digest. In the last eight months, monthly-GDP posted five declines, ranging from [-5.3%] to [-0.7%] annualized rates of change. At this time, “Real monthly GDP is on a plateau at the lowest point of its downswing trend,” Evangelos Otto Simos added.
The updates and revisions of national data, last week, modeled by number-science to perfectly synchronize
two frequencies to factor monthly growth as the equivalent to traditional quarterly-data growth rate, visualize the rolling three-month growth rate to post a reading of (-0.4%) in the three months to July 2022 from the previous period, three months to April 2022. “Two sophisticated intelligence analytics we use to identify turning points in the business cycle, both visualize solidly no recession signs in the months of the second quarter and in July,” Professor Evangelos Otto Simos pointed out in an environment of freedom of speech. ”The two quarters of negative growth in GDP is a layman’s rule of thumb,” Professor Simos added.
Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence to estimate monthly the most likely paths in the business cycle within a continuously dynamically moving economic environment, e-forecasting.com has introduced probabilistic modeling which quantifies every ten days the risk associated with the timing business decisions are made for optimizing profitability by risk-loving executives. "... our pique, science-based, factual-data driven, and running on dreaming ten-day frequency, our probabilistic-thinking predictive intelligence model visualizes, in the third vintage of the month of July 2022, a reading of 55.1 percent probability for the economy to be positioned in its expansion phase of its business cycle," Simos pointed out.
In the inflation front, the prices of all goods and services that make up monthly GDP are aggregated in national accounting, to form an overall monthly-GDP Price Index, officially called: GDP price deflator. The month-to-month %change in the price index of monthly-GDP, when positive is meaningfully called instantaneous inflation; when negative, meaningfully and naturally is called negative instantaneous inflation. In July, on a month-to-month basis, America's overall prices, aka monthly-GDP Price Index, declined by an annualized rate of [-2.1%], aka negative instantaneous inflation.
Applying the long-horizon growth rate (12-month) model to e–forecasting.com’s unique monthly GDP price index, the creative science–based process one-number inflation analytic, which provides to the public, ‘month– after–month’, and ‘week– by– week’ within the month’s horizon, unparallel information about policy guidance, consumer misery, and private business apathy. Today, the factual data based model visualizes for July 2022 a year‑over‑year inflation at [+6.7%].
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