America's real monthly˗GDP™ was lifted up again in April," said Professor Evangelos Simos, in highlights released today for the preliminary (second) monthly GDP update. Factual quantitative, not media-driven opinion surveys monthly data, "reveal solid gains in GDP growth in the first month of the second quarter in 2021, though at a slower pace, nearly two percentage points, below the growth rate of monthly GDP in March, ..." Simos added.
For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+6.5%) in the three months to April 2021 from the previous period, three months to January 2021. In other words, United States "economic growth in high frequency posted a quarterly-horizon annualized change of (+6.5%) in the month of April 2021. "To put current growth into a globally accepted perspective, "April’s percent change in monthly-GDP™ was (+3.6) percent points above the six-decade, 1959-2020, average long-term growth rate of (+2.9%)," Professor Simos noted.
Derived from predictive intelligence modeling, e˗forecasting.com’s unique probabilistic (thinking) predictive analytic visualizes in real time, "…the probability for the national economy to be in recession at 0.1% in April 2021, down from 0.2% in March 2021." When this decision-making tool, is near or passes the threshold probability of 50%, it provides in real time, instead of years, the needed signals for positioning the national economy on its business cycle, unlike “your father’s numbers.”
Monthly GDP at today's prices, which is officially called the market value of United States' output of goods and services expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates in current market prices, posted a reading of $22,546 billion. In business vocabulary, the size of the American market for doing business is $23 trillion today.
In the inflation front, the price index for monthly-GDP™, officially called the GDP price deflator - seasonally adjusted and set to equal 100 in 2012 - increased by an annual rate of (+5.6%) in April to an index reading of 117.1. In Fed-watch words, using the price index for monthly-GDP™, "…inflation for what America produces or America buys runs at a month-to-month annualized speed (rate) of (+5.6%)," asserted our e˗forecasting.com's Fed-watcher.
The next issue of U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring the third (final) estimate for April, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Thursday, June 3, 2021. Subscribers receive the Digest and data history, 1959-present, one workday before the press release day.
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